What about Wal-Mart?

Interesting take from Penn & Teller. Attention: this version is PG17 or R. There's language throughout the show and nudity in the end.


Online Videos by Veoh.com

Warming it up?

A recent video on MSN mentions a "Recent Study on Global Warming) (here is the link). The research paper cited in the video is available here (full text here) and - surprise! - the "new and recent study" was originally published in 2005! New? Not by any chance!

I don't know what goes on with certain media outlets, but to classify this research as new is the same as saying that your 2 year-old car is new. Good luck trying to sell it for the price of a new car. Moving on, the research paper says:

If the rate of increase of CO2 emissions were to continue up to 2025 and then were cut to zero, a temperature increase of {approx}1.3°C (my note: 2.34° F) compared to preindustrial conditions would still occur in 2100, whereas a constant-CO2-emissions scenario after 2025 would more than double the 2100 warming. These calculations illustrate the manner in which each generation inherits substantial climate change caused by CO2 emissions that occurred previously, particularly those of their parents, and shows that current CO2 emissions will contribute significantly to the climate change of future generations.

So we are talking about an increase of 2.6°C (or 4.7°F) in 80 years!! And that is assuming there are no major natural events that may cause a reduction in Earth's temeprature, such as a major volcanic eruption such as Pinatubo's. It also relies that carbon dioxide emissions will remain as they are or increase; which assumes that all the ongoing efforts are nothing. The other point of this theory is that it assumes that there will be a nuclear explosion in 2025 and all human life form will be eliminated.

None of these proposals seem reasonable, which begs the questions: where is the common sense in scientists? What about dealing with global warming with reasonable assumptions? And, more important, what will the tempreature increase really cause? (The real answer is: we don't know). The article concludes:

The simple calculations shown here illustrate that each past generation has inherited substantial climate change caused by carbon dioxide increases that occurred previously. Although substantial quantitative uncertainties are associated with the highly simplified approach taken in this article, the results are qualitatively robust and linked to basic physical considerations. They serve to illustrate how each human generation to date has added to carbon dioxide concentrations, thereby passing increasing warming commitments on to its children, grandchildren, and later descendants. Thus, today's carbon dioxide emissions can be expected to contribute significantly to the climate to be experienced by future generations.

Here is the chicken and the egg questions: is CO2 that causes globla warming or is the increase in temperature that increases CO2? In other words, does A causes B or B causes A? All the theories are that CO2 increases tempreature, but it could be the opposite. I have not seen any studies CEARLY linking increase in CO2 to increase in temperatures.


There is a lot to be learned about CO2 and global warming, and the media reports only provide the "scientific consensus" (whatever that means). I would like to see the data by myself, but no one has showed it to me. There are at least two big questions in this topic:

1) How strong is the correlation between CO2 and temperature increase? My guess is: lower than 20%.

2) Human made CO2 accounts for 5% or less of all emissions of CO2. Human emissions have been increasing over the years, but what about natural emissions?

I think blaming human-made CO2 is the easy way out, because it sorts of give a sense of empowerement, that we can do something. It this was not the case, then we would have to resort to G'd or a Higher Power. And that can be a scary thought to many people.

What Global Warming?

According to the USA Today

A look at the average global temperature since the year A.D. 200. Over the past 30 years, the Earth
has warmed by 1.08 degrees. Over the past 100 years, it has warmed by 1.44 degrees.

The "little" detail is that the newspaper makes no comment about past increases in temperatures. I would love to see a long-term chart of temperature and the science behind global warming. Call me skeptical, but 1.44 degrees in 100 years does not convince me of global warming. Maybe there is a case for Global Warming, but USA Today's position was just too weak.

Economists

This is a comic skit on Economics, posted on You Tube (where else?). Very funny if you know a little of economics. I particularly liked this one: Macroeconomists predicted 9 out of the 5 last recessions. Enjoy!

ABOUT COFFEE AND FISH

According to a news piece on Yahoo! (the whole story is here):

"[...] researchers at the Rush University Medical Center in Chicago followed more than 3000 men and women for six years to see how diet affected memory.
People who ate fish at least once a week had a 10 percent slower decline compared with those who did not eat fish, a difference that gave them the memory and thinking ability of a person three years younger. [...]"

The author links the positive effect to Omega 3 fatty acids, but there's no claim in the article that connects the increase to Omega 3! Sometimes I do not like the oversimplification of some piece of news. For example, how much fish did the person eat a week? 10z or 1lb? Does the type of fish make a difference? Does a fish stick at Long John Silver count as fish? And, in this case, what about all the fat in those sticks? Finally, was the difference perceived in person of all ages or just in a group?

The piece continues:

Researchers from the University of Innsbruck in Austria used functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) to examine the brain activity of people working on a memory task. The volunteers were tested twice, once after receiving the caffeine equivalent of about two cups of coffee, and once without any caffeine. Caffeine improved the memory skills and reactions times of the volunteers. In addition,
caffeine increased brain activity in two locations-the memory-rich frontal lobe and the attention-controlling anterior cingulum. Without caffeine, there was no increase in brain activity. So if memory problems are a major concern for you, and if you don't have a medical condition that precludes caffeine, feel free to indulge in a cup or two in the morning to jump-start your brain.

Being a coffee lover, I liked the news; but does it apply to the muddy, weak liquid sold as coffee in most places in the US? That's a good. At least that's something we don't need to remember doing. It is hard to remember eating fish, but not hard to remember drinking coffee. Maybe the solution is fish and coffee in the morning.

Some Changes

OK, so this blog was originally about marketing; but I decided to change it. With the lack of postings, I did not find the right tone.

This will be almost like an anti-Jerry Seinfield. Seinfield's show was about nothing. This blog will be about everything. From a a marketing perspective, not very clever. One of the first lessons in marketing is that a brand or product should have a positioning and mean something so a certain audience. Somehow, Seinfield already owns the "nothing" space. I think I will be the anti-Seinfield; or the Bizarro-Seinfield.

At any rate, I will see how it goes. This is a new project, and there will be changes along the way.

Skype and eBay: Insights into the Deal

EBay has recently announced (Sep-05) its purchase of Skype for up to $4.1 billion ($1.3 billion in cash, $1.3 billion in eBay stock and $1.5 billion in 2008 or 2009 if certain performance targets are met). Several analysts questioned the price tag for a company with revenues of $7 million in 2004 and expected revenues of $200 million in 2006. Was it too expensive?

Price setting is always difficult and sometimes means extracting the maximum value from the buyer. Because Skype fills an important hole in eBay’s capabilities and creates new service and revenue opportunities, the price makes sense. What void Skype fills and what new opportunities and synergies it creates will be discussed later. But first, what is Skype?

Skype is a Luxembourg-based company founded by the creators of Kazaa, one of the most downloaded software programs ever. The Company’s sole product is an instant messaging software also called Skype. Skype is based on proven technology and has a team with a track record of developing successful products. Ebay did not make an investment in a company “of the future” but in a going concern.

According to Skype’s website, its goal is to provide a simple, reliable and friendly communications tool that just works. And, boy, does it work! Skype software has earned several awards and is considered the best option for voice communications over the Internet (or VoIP for short). Operating since 2003, Skype already has 50+ million users and 2+ million users connected at any given time. Unlike other VoIP services such as Vonage; Skype does not require sophisticated hardware to work. All a new user has to do is download the software, install it, and use it with a regular microphone and speakers or a headset. Skype software works with any operating system.

Calls between Skype users are free. To create revenue, the Company developed fee-based services such as SkypeOut (to call any phone in the world from your computer), SkypeIn (to allow a user to have a phone number in another country), Skype VoiceMail, SkypeZones (a custom version of Skype for use in Wi-Fi hotspots), and downloadable ringtones. Because Skype’s calls are carried over the Internet, it can be used from any kind of Internet connection, such as hotspots and even dial-up connections. Skype software also allows users to exchange text messages or files, just like America Online’s AIM Messenger, Microsoft’s MSN Messenger or Yahoo’s Yahoo! Messenger.

The big deal for eBay is that Skype can make eBay talk. We have grown so accustomed to e-mail and the Internet that we forgot how much interaction is involved in the shopping experience. Most transactions still occur with some type of voice interaction between people. It is interesting to note that sophisticated stock traders still talk to each other. Buyers and vendors still negotiate using their voice at street fairs, carnivals and even at farmers’ markets. Strangely enough, voice was absent from eBay and no one seemed to notice. Voice communication got us out of the “cave”; and, it is still important.

EBay’s CEO, Meg Whitman, says the straight forward application for Skype is to improve communication between buyers and sellers. This decreases the time it takes to close a transaction. And, more transactions mean more revenues for eBay.

Enabling voice is very important for transactions involving high ticket items, such as cars (eBay motors), apartment or home renting (Rent.com) and even capital equipment (eBay Business). With several items going for $50,000+, no sane person will want to close such deals without talking to the seller. In the context of an eBay listing, Skype is a one click call. Getting more of these big deals closed will become a growth engine for eBay.

Skype can also promote eBay’s international growth. Skype has users in 225 countries, whereas eBay has operations in just 30 countries. This is very significant, since recently the largest growth in eBay’s revenues has been overseas. EBay’s international operations grew from $29 million in 2000 (6.7% of revenues) to $1.2 billion in 2004 (46.4% of revenues). Skype helps eBay become a complete global marketplace.

EBay’s new global reach will create a need for translation services. Most cultures are not comfortable doing business in a language they do not know well. Translators solve this problem. Because Skype already has time counters embedded into its software, it makes it easy for professionals that charge by the hour, such as translators, to keep track of their time and charges. This means a whole new category of demand for eBay.

Last but not least, Skype opens the door for eBay to conduct live auctions, competing with Sotheby’s, Christie’s and other auction houses. Skype already has video capabilities, so users can see goods in real time and make their bids using Skype’s text messaging. Because Skype has limitations on the number of people that can be simultaneously connected to a chat or conference, users may need to bid for the right to attend a live auction. With broadband use increasing all over the world, these video capabilities could transform eBay into an Internet QVC, with several live auctions or shows going on at the same time.

In the first half of 2005, eBay has already had a little over 800 million listings. Even if my suppositions about future revenues do not materialize, eBay can generate some revenue from Skype usage. If eBay is able to capture $0.10 in Skype revenue from every listing, it could generate at least $160 million per year in new revenues. Not bad!! Not bad at all!

Welcome!

This is blog is about marketing. I am going to share ideas, insisghts and links. I welcome your comments and posts with your comments.